In Italy, “the virus no longer exists from a clinical point of view”

A look at the curve plot­ting Italian “Active Cases” on worldometers.info1, set­ting the crosshair to April 30, con­firms that our “some­time around the end of April” esti­mate for effec­tive sat­u­ra­tion of the SARS-CoV-2 pan­dem­ic in Italy2 was very close to the mark if one con­sid­ers aver­age incu­ba­tion time as well as typ­i­cal time to testing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Now it appears that even the small num­ber of new cas­es that are still being reg­is­tered nation­wide are not real­ly “cas­es” any­more, as the Italian news­pa­per “il gior­nale” reports,3 some­thing which had already been hypoth­e­sized from obser­va­tions of declin­ing aver­age dis­ease sever­i­ty in recent weeks. The per­ti­nent pas­sage trans­lat­ed into English:

Alberto Zangrillo, Chief and Director of Intensive Care at San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, dur­ing his inter­ven­tion in [Italian state tele­vi­sion] Raitre’s “Half an hour more” pro­gram, said that “the virus no longer exists from a clin­i­cal point of view”.

This is the result of a study con­duct­ed by Professor Clementi, the direc­tor of the Institute of Virology at the University Vita e Salute of San Raffaele, and it is being con­firmed by Professor Silvestri at Emory University in Atlanta: The swabs per­formed in the last ten days have results with an infin­i­tes­i­mal viral load from the quan­ti­ta­tive point of view com­pared to the swabs per­formed on patients a month ago”.

For any­one under­stand­ing Italian, a record­ing of all that Professor Zangrillo had to say in the trans­mis­sion is also avail­able to be viewed.4

Meaning: The – ever and strong­ly declin­ing – “new pos­i­tive cas­es” in Italy are sim­ply not “pos­i­tive” enough any­more to cause any seri­ous dis­ease. Something which may be expect­ed – with the respec­tive time lapse – to hap­pen in the still more seri­ous­ly affect­ed coun­tries as well. It may thus be impor­tant to not just “count cas­es” from now on, but also to mon­i­tor aver­age viral load in infect­ed peo­ple very close­ly to iden­ti­fy the point where a wide con­sen­sus on end­ing all lock­downs will final­ly be able to be reached.

The above is just anoth­er indi­ca­tion that what mat­ters with regard to “COVID-19” is viral load and viral load only, fur­ther con­firm­ing that our high-lev­el con­cep­tu­al approach to deal­ing with COVID-19 pro­posed on March 165 was indeed the cor­rect one all along.

In future health emer­gen­cies, it should be con­tem­plat­ed to lis­ten more atten­tive­ly to clin­i­cians and oth­er physi­cians accus­tomed to view­ing the human being as an organ­ism rather than sim­ply a mech­a­nism read­i­ly lend­ing itself to sta­tis­ti­cal analy­sis. The human organ­ism is a high­ly com­plex log­i­cal for­ma­tion – the most com­plex enti­ty in the uni­verse that we know of – that can only be com­pre­hend­ed in a log­i­cal man­ner. COVID-19 has, once again, evi­denced the urgency to rise above the view once phrased by the first mem­o­rable biotech com­pa­ny, Genentech, which earnest­ly spoke of the human organ­ism as “a col­lec­tion of molecules”.

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  1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/[]
  2. https://loico.com/why-we-have-likely-seen-the-bottom-of-the-corona-crash-in-the-us-stock-market/, https://loico.com/covid-19-herd-immunity-likely-much-sooner-than-expected/[]
  3. https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/cronache/zangrillo-virus-clinicamente-non-esiste-pi-1867001.html[]
  4. https://www.facebook.com/gianluca.iacolare/posts/10222905738543033?hc_location=ufi[]
  5. https://loico.com/the-logic-of-surviving-the-coronavirus-pandemic/ , lat­er expand­ed upon: https://loico.com/additional-thoughts-regarding-benefit-throat-disinfection-covid-19-like-epidemics/[]
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Logic is all about relating individual pieces of information in a consistent way. “Consistent” means non-contradictory. An apparent tendency of two pieces of information to appear inconsistent calls for express differentiating clarification, with the logically required depth of differentiating discussion depending on the extent to which both pieces of information appear similar.
We had expressed ourselves confident to be able to predict the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election with a high degree of confidence based on financial market behavior. What we figured out – with the highest degree of confidence – was that we were maximally uncertain about the outcome (keeping us in silent consternation). Which in hindsight would appear exactly as the correct assessment to have been made.

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Logic is all about relating individual pieces of information in a consistent way. “Consistent” means non-contradictory. An apparent tendency of two pieces of information to appear inconsistent calls for express differentiating clarification, with the logically required depth of differentiating discussion depending on the extent to which both pieces of information appear similar.
We had expressed ourselves confident to be able to predict the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election with a high degree of confidence based on financial market behavior. What we figured out – with the highest degree of confidence – was that we were maximally uncertain about the outcome (keeping us in silent consternation). Which in hindsight would appear exactly as the correct assessment to have been made.
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