loico prediction was again correct – and “Science” magazine officially abdicates

We apol­o­gize to all those of our read­ers who could not care less about the stock mar­ket for writ­ing once again about – the stock mar­ket. We do so because, today, our sec­ond if much less far-reach­ing mar­ket call turned out to be cor­rect.

We had said on very ear­ly June 5, EST, at a time when the S&P 500 futures were hov­er­ing at 3120 points, that we had reen­tered the mar­ket because the “short-term bal­ance of risks, in our view, judg­ing by the market’s observ­able micro-behav­ior, con­tin­ues to be tilt­ed towards the upside”, so that we “would not be entire­ly sur­prised if the S&P 500 were to rise anoth­er 200 points, to about 3325, fair­ly quick­ly from here.” We had added: “This kind of assess­ment by a trad­er is a pre­dic­tion in the fol­low­ing sense: Either the mar­ket will quick­ly move in the hypoth­e­sized direc­tion, or, if it does not and pos­si­bly even does the oppo­site, the entire con­stel­la­tion will still prove such that we will be able to exit the posi­tion tak­en with­out a loss, because the mar­ket will revis­it the point at which we entered.”

The mar­ket did move very quick­ly in the hypoth­e­sized direc­tion, as we have pre­vi­ous­ly not­ed, yet made it only a lit­tle over half-way to the indi­cat­ed price tar­get, at which point, after the FED state­ment last Wednesday, we observed unfa­vor­able mar­ket micro-behav­ior, prompt­ing us to take prof­its and, even­tu­al­ly, reen­ter some­what low­er. The mar­ket has since slumped – when cal­cu­lat­ed from its high – by about 9 per­cent, only to then do exact­ly what we had said it would do in case the pos­i­tive case would not (ful­ly) come to fruition: It com­fort­ably revis­it­ed our offi­cial­ly stat­ed (re)entry point of 3120 points dur­ing today’s trad­ing ses­sion, enabling us to take those chips off the table that we want­ed removed. We are left with some prof­it, less than we had aimed for, but an addi­tion­al prof­it nonethe­less. “Gain – or no loss, result­ing, on aver­age, in gains over time”, we had said: “Trading is that ‘sim­ple’ in the end.”

Why do we keep com­ing back to this sub­ject?

To an extent, because it is a com­mon belief in the aca­d­e­m­ic com­mu­ni­ty that “the stock mar­ket can­not be prof­itably timed” and that stock mar­ket behav­ior, espe­cial­ly in the short term, be unpre­dictable. By repeat­ed­ly talk­ing in pre­dic­tive terms about finan­cial mar­ket behav­ior we wish to demon­strate that true sci­ence, rely­ing on log­i­cal rea­son­ing to deter­mine like­ly caus­es of observed phe­nom­e­na – instead of mere­ly “observ­ing phe­nom­e­na” and will­ful­ly dis­re­gard­ing relat­ed such phe­nom­e­na – , and to then make pre­dic­tions from the entire­ty of observed phe­nom­e­na, can – and must – be clean­ly dis­tin­guished from pseu­do-sci­ence that has tak­en a strong hold in recent years in the two for­mer­ly lead­ing sci­en­tif­ic jour­nals, “Science” and “Nature”.

For those who are not also sub­scribers to “Science” – and we know that some of you are – , or who may have missed it, here is the recent dec­la­ra­tion of intel­lec­tu­al bank­rupt­cy by the “Science” edi­tor:

“The evi­dence of sys­temic racism in sci­ence per­me­ates this nation. Why are so few Science authors from his­tor­i­cal­ly black col­leges and uni­ver­si­ties? Why are the sci­en­tif­ic areas stud­ied more fre­quent­ly by peo­ple of col­or con­tin­u­ous­ly under­fund­ed by the gov­ern­ment? Why do stu­dents who are peo­ple of col­or have to remind soci­ety that they are almost nev­er taught by some­one who looks like them? Why has the United States failed to update its ways of teach­ing sci­ence when data show that peo­ple of col­or learn bet­ter with more inclu­sive meth­ods?”

We refuse to even con­sid­er the pos­si­bil­i­ty that those who are sub­scribers to loico might not notice the com­plete absence of any log­ic in this para­graph, a para­graph that com­mences with an extreme­ly far-reach­ing claim and con­tin­ues – and con­cludes – with rhetor­i­cal ques­tions con­tain­ing state­ments about obser­va­tions, ques­tions that would first have to be thor­ough­ly answered, pon­der­ing all avail­able infor­ma­tion, in order to be able to sup­port the ini­tial claim – let alone that one would cer­tain­ly be at a loss to come to terms with, for exam­ple, a demand that stu­dents be “taught by some­one who looks like them”.

And then the “Science” edi­tor out­right “outs” him­self as what would appear as an entire­ly irra­tional racist:

“The first step is for sci­ence and sci­en­tists to say out loud that they have ben­e­fit­ed from, and failed to acknowl­edge, white suprema­cy.”

Again, no evi­dence pro­vid­ed (in case this were pos­si­ble with regard to an unde­fined con­cept, of course). The sci­ence edi­tor seems to assume that every­one “knows” that the state­ments con­tained in his rhetor­i­cal ques­tions be true. Yet every­one (and his dog) also knows that “yel­low” peo­ple – peo­ple of Asian descent – are sig­nif­i­cant­ly over-rep­re­sent­ed in sci­ence. And, at least to our knowl­edge, “yel­low” is not “white”.

There is some­thing seri­ous­ly awk­ward in invok­ing skin col­or when talk­ing about human beings, of course, but even more so when it’s being done in an illog­i­cal way.

One has a very hard time imag­in­ing that the “Science” edi­tor has ever made a sin­gle cent in the stock mar­ket, at least by employ­ing sci­en­tif­ic meth­ods of analy­sis. Because a “sci­en­tist” he clear­ly is not. What he is, we do not know, but we har­bor a sus­pi­cion (or two), nur­tured by what he goes on to say after effec­tive­ly call­ing “sci­en­tists” “white suprema­cists”, what­ev­er the lat­ter expres­sion may mean, entire­ly unde­fined as the “Science” edi­tor leaves it:

“And then … sci­en­tists final­ly need to … make space for … peo­ple of col­or to lead lab­o­ra­to­ries that pub­lish great sci­ence and pro­duce influ­en­tial sci­en­tists”.

Note that “sci­en­tists” need to, in the words of this indi­vid­ual, “make space” for “peo­ple of col­or”. This indi­vid­ual, we have to con­clude, in his sub­con­scious mind that pro­duces log­i­cal struc­tures called phras­es, not only sup­pos­es but sees fit to pub­lish in one of the for­mer­ly most emi­nent sci­en­tif­ic pub­li­ca­tions this world pos­sessed that “sci­en­tists” and “peo­ple of col­or” fall into non-over­lap­ping cat­e­gories.

While the true answer to all “race”-related ques­tions can only be giv­en by chaos the­o­ry, not by abstract either/or-rea­son­ing, the word­ing employed by the “Science” edi­tor clear­ly match­es even the most thought- and clue­less def­i­n­i­tion of “racist”.

“Science”, it appears, is stone-dead.

Long live sci­ence.

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